Provisional ball

Situation:
Player A hits his ball right into a bush. As none of the other players were aware at the time that this was a red-marked penalty area, player A played a provisional ball.
The second ball also flew right into the bushes. On the way to the supposed spot where the ball flew into the bushes, the red markings could be seen. None of player A's balls could be found.
Player A dropped a ball. Now my question?
As this is a penalty area, player A should not have played a provisional ball, or should he?
In this case, does player A continue to play with the 3 or 5 ball?

Decision:
A provisional ball may be played if the player believes that the ball may be lost or may come to rest out of bounds (Rule 18.3).
Rule 18.3a/I states that to determine whether a provisional ball may be hit, only the information the player has at the time of the hit is taken into account. Since no player was aware that it was a penalty area, he was allowed to put a provisional ball into play. As it became obvious on the way to the ball and it was almost certain (95%) that the ball had come to rest in a (previously unknown) penalty area, the player must give up the provisional ball in accordance with Rule 18.3c(3) and continue play with the original ball or continue play with a penalty stroke in accordance with Rule 17.1d (i.e. with the 3rd stroke). (i.e. with the 3rd stroke)

A provisional ball may only not be played if it is already known or virtually certain that the ball came to rest in a penalty area.

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